Who to Watch and Why
Back to overview | Related: oil-and-hormuz, gold-and-safe-havens, fed-and-rates
These are the institutions and individuals whose moves shape markets. We watch them not to copy them, but to understand the forces acting on every asset we care about. See timeline for when these players made their moves.
JP Morgan
Why they matter: Largest US bank by assets. Their research desk sets institutional sentiment. When JP Morgan publishes a target, other funds reposition.
Current positioning:
- Gold target: $6,300/oz by December 2026
- Pre-conflict Brent baseline: $60/bbl (now irrelevant)
- Warned European natural gas could spike on transit disruption
- Dubai/Abu Dhabi operations on work-from-home contingency
What to learn: JP Morgan’s oil and gold targets tell you what the median institutional investor is pricing. If reality exceeds their targets, markets will overshoot.
Track: JP Morgan Global Research
Goldman Sachs
Why they matter: Their commodity desk is the most influential on Wall Street. When Goldman says $100 oil, trading desks around the world adjust their hedges.
Current positioning:
- Brent could breach $100 if strikes expand
- European natural gas could surge 130% if Hormuz disrupted for one month
- Strategist Dominic Wilson: equity damage depends on energy shock duration
- Pre-conflict S&P 500 target: 7,500 (now under review)
What to learn: Goldman’s scenario analysis is the framework. They define the thresholds ($100 oil, 130% gas spike) that trigger the next leg of market moves.
Track: Goldman Sachs Insights
BlackRock
Why they matter: World’s largest asset manager (approx. $11T AUM). They don’t just react to markets — their ETF flows are the market in many sectors. When BlackRock rotates, entire sectors move.
Current positioning:
- Pre-conflict: AI-focused with tactical flexibility
- Now: haven-first rotation across iShares products
- Geopolitical Risk Dashboard provides real-time quantified risk levels
What to learn: BlackRock’s dashboard turns qualitative fear into quantitative risk scores. Use it to calibrate your own assessment.
Track: Geopolitical Risk Dashboard
Bridgewater / Ray Dalio
Why they matter: Largest hedge fund. Dalio’s macro framework (debt cycles, great power conflict) predicted this environment months ago. His model is the one many funds use to navigate geopolitical crises.
Current positioning:
- February: warned of “great disorder,” compared to 1930s
- Called incoming “capital war” — financial assets as geopolitical weapons
- Said Iran regime change makes Middle East more investable
- Sold US tech stocks, soured on America, defensive posture
What to learn: Dalio thinks in decades. His framework says this isn’t a one-off shock — it’s part of a structural shift in the global order. If he’s right, the defensive rotation isn’t temporary.
Track: Bridgewater Research
Berkshire Hathaway / Warren Buffett
Why they matter: $382 billion in cash. This is the largest war chest in market history. Buffett’s deployment is the single most watched bottom signal in finance.
Current positioning:
- approx. $382B cash, record high, more than double previous peak
- Apple stake cut from approx. 60B
- Bank of America and other positions sold through 2025
- Cash in short-term Treasuries at 3.6% yield
- Has been raising cash since 2023 bull market began
What to learn: Buffett saw something coming. He didn’t know it would be Iran, but he knew valuations were stretched and risk was elevated. When he starts buying, the message is: “the worst is priced in.” We are not there yet.
Track: Berkshire 13F on SEC EDGAR
Citadel / Ken Griffin
Why they matter: Most profitable hedge fund in history. Multi-strategy across equities, fixed income, commodities, and quant. When Citadel moves, it often means they’ve found a mispricing before anyone else.
Current positioning:
- Rushing to size up Middle East exposure
- Specific positioning not public
- Entering 2026 with mega-cap tech overweight — likely trimming
- Wellington fund gained 10.2% in 2025
What to learn: Citadel’s 13F filings (quarterly, with a lag) will eventually show what the smartest money did during this crisis. Worth checking in May.
Track: Citadel 13F on HedgeFollow
How to Use 13F Filings
All funds managing >$100M must file quarterly 13F reports with the SEC. These show actual holdings — not what they say they hold, but what they actually hold.
- Filed 45 days after quarter end (Q1 2026 filings due mid-May)
- Available free on SEC EDGAR
- Aggregated on WhaleWisdom, Dataroma, HedgeFollow
- Limitation: 45-day lag means you’re always looking in the rear-view mirror
- But patterns over multiple quarters reveal strategy, not just trades